Starting Pitching

The playoffs started yesterday without the Mets. And on the first day of the 2025 Postseason, starting pitching was very much on display.

We saw Tarik Skubal strike out 14 Guardians over 7.2 innings, leading the Tigers to a Game 1 victory.

Then we saw an old fashioned pitching duel in the Bronx, with Garrett Crochet and Max Fried matching zeros through 6 innings. Crochet’s Red Sox broke through in the seventh inning, only after Max Fried was removed from the game at 102 pitches.

Crochet threw 117 pitches, warming the hearts of baseball traditionalists everywhere.

In a game that’s becoming dominated by analytics and shifting away from starting pitching, last night was reminiscent of the sport many of us grew up watching.

Tarik Skubal is in his sixth season with Detroit. Garrett Crochet and Max Fried were both acquired by their current teams in the off-season. Crochet through trade, Fried through free agency.

Max Fried was signed to an 8 year, 218,000,000 deal. Boston sent 4 prospects to Chicago for Crochet, including their last two first round picks.

Chicago and Boston are no strangers to these types of deals. In 2018, the Red Sox traded four prospects to the White Sox for Chris Sale. **Side note**
The Red Sox won the World Series in 2018.

Let’s look at that 2018 deal. Boston sent Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Víctor Díaz to the South Side in exchange for Sale.

Moncada had one good season in 2019. He’s now quietly playing for the Angels.

Kopech has shown flashes of brilliance but injuries have kept him off the field; he’s logged 411 career innings since 2018.

Luis Alexander Basabe last played professional baseball in 2022.

Victor Diaz never made any noise in the major leagues.

Speaking of Chris Sale, the Red Sox went and traded the lefty to the Braves last season for Vaughn Grisson. Sale won the Cy Young award in 2024 and was an All-Star in 2025. Vaughn Grissom? The jury is still out and that’s being generous.

I know you aren’t on a Mets page for Red Sox prospect history. I’m just saying that had the Mets traded for Garrett Crochet, the starting price likely would have been Carson Benge, Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat.

Internally, those players are viewed as our next second baseman and center fielder. And we saw Brandon Sproat for a few starts at the major league level last month.

Let’s start by saying this. If the Mets traded for Garrett Crochet they would have been playing baseball yesterday. I don’t think that’s a crazy declaration. The Mets needed to just win one more game to make the playoffs.

Similarly, If the Mets signed Max Fried they would have been playing baseball yesterday.

Actually, if the Mets acquired Fried or Crochet there’s a good chance they would have won the NL East.

No one remains on Chicago’s roster from the Chris Sale trade. Chicago also traded Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields so you obviously have to find a balance.

The Mets, according to many media outlets, have the Number 1 ranked farm system. I’m not saying to gut the farm. I’m also not saying you always have to spend top dollars for pitching either. What I’m saying is that the playoffs started yesterday; We were home watching and ACES were putting their teams in position to win.

So that’s basically my long introduction to a conversation we should have about David Stearns.

I’m going to be fair. You can turn on WFAN right now if you want someone to scream “All he did was sign Frankie Montas! He sucks! Fire him.” But a conversation needs to be had.

We made a post in the winter on this page about a huge concern we had.

-Clay Holmes had never pitched more than 70 innings in a season and was slotted right into our rotation.

-Kodai Senga pitched 10 innings last season between the regular season and playoffs and was coming off injury. Not to mention he was used to pitching in a six man rotation in Japan.

– David Peterson had hip surgery last year. He was phenomenal in 2024 and did manage to throw a career high in innings but that was only 121.

– Sean Manaea was coming off a great season in 2024 but he was another pitcher who reached a career high in innings pitched. 181.

-Tylor Megill pitched 78 innings in 2024.

-Griffin Canning was coming off a season in which he reached a career high in innings 171.

-The infamous Frankie Montas threw 150 innings in 2024. He threw one inning in 2023. He hasn’t been good since the first half of 2022.

– Paul Blackburn threw 75 innings in 2024 and was coming off injury.

How many freaking red flags do we need to see?

That’s 8 pitchers who would be considered for the starting rotation in 2025.

Two were coming off injury. One threw 10 innings. One threw 75.

One was a relief pitcher and was going to convert into a starter.

Three had reached their career high in innings the season previous and that mark was a HUGE spike from the seasons that preceded it.

Then you had one pitcher who had been extremely inconsistent with the Mets his entire career coming off a season where he had thrown 78 innings.

And Frankie Montas.

Who are you relying on down the stretch and into the playoffs? What’s the contingency plan if some of those pitchers hit a wall?

And facts are facts. David Peterson was awesome in 2024 and was an All-Star in 2025. He just hit a wall in the second half.

Megill, like usual, was great in April and then was inconsistent before his season ending injury.

Griffin Canning was really good until his season ending injury.

Montas started the season hurt and then was bad.

Blackburn was bad.

Manaea started the season hurt and then was bad.

Clay Holmes was solid. Top ten in ERA. I liked the move at the time and it worked out.

Kodai Senga was great. He was pitching to a sub 1.50 ERA before he got hurt. When he returned he was so bad he got sent to Syracuse.

So sure. They did have a LOT of injuries. But with everything we just discussed… If Canning, Manaea, Blackburn, Senga, Montas and Megill didn’t get hurt… What is the confidence level that they could get through an entire season and be productive through October?

I’m just playing devil’s advocate. I’m someone who genuinely liked the top 4 of Senga, Peterson, Manaea and Holmes on paper going into the season.

But. I definitely had a lot of reservations.

Let’s be fair. What team could withstand injuries to six starting pitchers? 3 of those injuries were season ending. And the other 3? Senga, Montas and Manaea? While they weren’t technically season ending, Montas was released, Senga was sent to Syracuse and Manaea was relegated to the bullpen.

Not many teams could weather that storm. But without beating a dead horse, there were things to be wary of headed into the season.

Now the Mets did have some help in the form of minor league reinforcements.

Nolan McLean was awesome. Brandon Sproat was good. Jonah Tong after dominating the minors was up and down after joining the Mets.

Maybe that influenced David Stearns not to acquire starting pitching at the trade deadline. And don’t kill me but let’s be real here. Despite EVERYTHING I just wrote above, NOBODY would have predicted that Senga AND Manaea AND Peterson would all be ABSOLUTELY UNPLAYABLE down the stretch in 2025.

And which starting pitchers were moved at the deadline? Merrill Kelly? He was very good after he was moved but didn’t make it through five innings in his last 3 appearances.

If the Mets acquired him they would have made the playoffs. He’s now a free agent. What is half a season of Merrill Kelly worth? Well. Like we said they would have made the playoffs. That’s certainly worth something.

What about 2026?
Manaea’s last two appearances in 2025 were solid even though they were very brief. You would think/hope that Senga would somewhat return to form after a winter to rehabilitate. But again. Banking on them in 2026 would be ludicrous.

But they will be back in 2026 if they are healthy. So will David Peterson and Clay Holmes.

So you’re looking at a potential rotation AGAIN of Senga, Manaea, Peterson and Holmes. Then you have McLean, Sproat and Tong instead of Blackburn, Montas, Megill and Canning.

Can those names be relied on to get you to and through the Postseason.

I’m a homer and I’m a sucker for homegrown talent. But I have to say the answer is no. You can’t rely on those names with hundred percent confidence.

I’m also realistic. They aren’t going to clean house and start from scratch. And they shouldn’t.

But you have to learn from 2025. And I believe they will.

As stated above the Mets have the Number 1 farm system in baseball. You hope that these prospects become everyday players at the major league level. These prospects are also accepted currency for proven talent.

In addition, you have Steve Cohen as the owner. His money is also accepted currency.

You hear that David Stearns has a philosophy of not wanting to give pitchers long term deals. Maybe that’s true maybe that’s just based on his financial constraints in Milwaukee.

Can we really kill the Mets for not signing Max Fried AND Juan Soto?

I don’t want to say that Stearns just threw stuff at the wall and was hoping it would stick in regards to the pitching staff but it would be foolish to say that the rotation headed into 2025 was a sure thing.

All I know is I watched playoff baseball yesterday and it didn’t include the Mets.