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Don’t Let Their Record Fool You – The Mets are in Trouble

That’s right. You read that title correctly. As of June 24, the Mets record is 46-33. They are only 1.5 games out of first place in the National League East. Many would look at that record and say that the Mets are fine and to not panic. Let me state it again, “Don’t let the record fool you. The Mets are in trouble.” 

Let’s take a deep dive into the numbers here and show why the Mets, their fans and everyone associated with the team should be worried. Sure, it’s easy to point at the last ten games and show that the Mets are 1-9 and the last 7 of those games are against division rivals. That is a small sample size though and since we are talking baseball and to give a better barometer of where this team is, we need a bigger sample size. 

So let’s take the last 35 games, particularly starting with the series against the New York Yankees on May 16, in which the Mets would lose 2 out of 3 and look overmatched against a very flawed Yankee team. 

Since that series the Mets have a record of 18-17. Sure, you might say that’s respectable and it is. However, there have been a clear distinction in the teams the Mets have played since that time and how the Mets have played against those teams. 

They played are the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Rockies, Nationals, White Sox, Rays, Phillies and Braves in those 35 games. There is a clear distinction between good teams and bad teams. 

During that stretch the Mets have a record of 11-1 versus the Rockies, Nationals and White Sox. These are the bad teams. Combined those teams have a winning percentage of .322. 

Against everyone else (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Rays, Phillies and Braves) their record is 7-16. The combined winning percentage for those teams? .551. For future conversation, we’ll refer to this group as the good teams. 

It’s a drastic difference in performance against those two groups and a clear indication that the Mets performance against arguably the three worst teams in baseball have masked the fact that the Mets have been a bad team for over a month now. 

Let’s take an deeper dive into those numbers and show just how drastic. 

During this timeframe against the bad teams the Mets averaged 5.6 runs per game and allowed an average of 3 runs per game. Compare that to their average on the season where the Mets are averaging 4.42 runs per game and in these 11 games the Mets are 1.2 runs per game better than their average. They also exceeded their runs allowed per average by allowing a half of a run per game less.  

However, let’s take a look at these same numbers versus the good teams. Against the good teams the Mets averaged 3.3 runs per game. They played those teams 23 times during this stretch and scored 76 runs. That 3.3 runs per game is over a run below the league average. They also have allowed 113 runs scored during these 23 games for an average of 4.91 runs per game. That is almost .75 of a run above league average and 1.3 runs per game over their season average. 

So what do these numbers tell you? It’s pretty simple actually. The Mets scored over two runs per game more against the bad teams than they did against the good teams and they allowed almost two runs per game more against the good teams than they did against the bad teams during this 35 game stretch. 

Is it unreasonable to say that the 12 games against arguably the worst three teams in baseball have masked a bigger issue with this team? Has it masked the fact that their bullpen, back end of the rotation and more importantly the offense have not performed well enough to sustain a run to the division title? 

The gap between the good teams and bad teams is startling. The Mets beat the bad teams by over 2.5 runs per game during this stretch. They trail the good teams by over 1.6 runs per game during that stretch. How do they close the gap against the good teams? Until the trade deadline, where the Mets will certainly be looking to make upgrades, they need to hope their reinforcements, particularly Sean Manaea and Mark Vientos, both of whom are coming off the injured list shortly, provide a much needed spark to this team. 

So when someone says it’s not time to panic or that this recent stretch isn’t indicative of what the Mets are, I would challenge and say they are wrong.

Remember only “good” teams will be in the playoffs and if the Mets want to make a deep run like they did in 2024, things are going to have to change quickly. That was certainly the expectation coming into the season and it’s fair to question whether or not that is in jeopardy. They better hope their internal reinforcements come back and contribute greatly to this team or this season could spiral out of control by the All-Star break. 

It’s officially panic time in Queens. 

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The Mets Need a Wake-Up Call

Another night in Atlanta and another deflating Mets loss. The Mets have now lost 5 games in a row including two of the first three games in Atlanta. This series is a big one for the Mets against a tough division rival and so far it’s been a complete disaster. Suddenly the good vibes from the early part of the season feel like a distant memory. 

The problems run deeper than just this series though. So far in 2025 it’s been the Mets pitching that has carried the team to a 45-29 record. Entering the game on Wednesday, their team ERA led all of Major League Baseball at an impressive 2.98. They’ve been getting excellent performances by guys who you didn’t expect. Griffin Canning (6-3 3.80 ERA) and bullpen arm Max Kranick (3-2 3.65 ERA) are just two examples of that. Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and the “pitching lab” have received a ton of praise for their work this season and rightfully so. When an aspect of the team performs, the coaches should get praise. 

The offense, on the other hand, is a different story. Coming into the season, many looked at this Mets lineup as one of the most potent offenses in baseball. With veteran key players returning like Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, plus the emergence of third baseman Mark Vientos the offense was already looking good. Add in a couple of young potential stars like Francisco Alvarez and Luisangel Acuna both whom showed flashes of being productive major league hitters in the past and it looked like a sure thing that this offense was going to hit. Oh and I almost forgot the addition of the legendary Juan Soto. It looked like this had the potential to be the best Mets offense in years. 

Yet so far, that offense hasn’t produced. It’s no longer a just slow start. 74 games have now been completed and it’s now become a major concern. Sure if you look at some of the key stats, the offense doesn’t look that bad but if you dig a little deeper there are a few stats that really stick out to you. The team ranks 17th in baseball in batting average behind teams like the Kansas City Royals and Miami Marlins. They rank 11th in runs scored behind teams like Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds. The most alarming thing though is just how bad this team has been with runners in scoring position. 

The Mets rank 29th in batting average (.217) with runners in scoring position.  Only the Chicago White Sox are worse. To their credit the team has been very public in the fact that they know this is an issue and are trying to correct it. However, here we are in the middle of June and nothing has changed. It’s been a team wide problem. Even the great Juan Soto has struggled badly in this category. It’s clear something is broken and the team has been unable to fix it. 

The other alarming thing about this offense is that there are a few of the younger players who have regressed this year. Before he got hurt Mark Vientos did not look like the same player he was in 2024. Sure, early season slumps happen, but in 53 games Vientos’ OPS was .150 points lower in 2025 than it was in 2024. And he’s not alone. 

Catcher Francisco Alvarez was at one time one of the club’s best prospects. He showed power throughout the minor leagues and was viewed as someone who could potentially be a force in the Mets lineup for years to come. In 2023, his first year in the majors, Alvarez showed flashes of that player. While his average wasn’t there he hit 25 home runs in almost 400 at bats. There was hope that he could progress into a major offensive force. 

His 2024 season was injury plagued and his stats were down. And even though he missed the first month of the season in 2025, there was still the expectation that Alvarez would contribute greatly offensively. 

Through 33 games, Alvarez is hitting .235 with just two homers and 10 RBIs. If you have watched the games, he somehow looks worse than his numbers show. He is swinging through fast balls right down the middle of the plate and looks completely lost . Many in the stands and press box are starting to call for backup Luis Torrens to take over the starting duties at catcher. Torrens is a career .228 hitter. That should tell you all you need to know.  Alvarez looks like a shell of his former self. It’s hard to envision Alvarez becoming the player he seemed destined to be a couple of years ago. 

Vientos and Alvarez aren’t alone. Luisangel Acuna’s cup of coffee in the majors last year looked promising. However, his 2025 season hasn’t come anywhere close to what he looked like last year. Acuna has yet to hit a homer and has struggled so badly offensively recently, the Mets have basically treated him as a pinch runner or late inning defensive replacement in the last month or so.

So what does all this mean? Why am I telling you all this.  With all their offensive woes this season it’s time to hold people accountable. I believe hitting coaches Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes are the ones who should be held to the fire. 

If we can give praise to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and his coaches for the pitching’s success so far in 2025, why can’t we hold Chavez and Barnes accountable for the offense’s struggles? They’re the ones who help get the hitters prepared. They’re the ones who meet with these hitters every day and are supposed to aide them in their struggles. They’re the ones helping the organization make all the decisions regarding the offense. I think now is the time to bring other hitting coaches in here who can give a fresh perspective to these players. Maybe it’ll have the same effect for the Mets as it did in 1999. 

In June of that season Mets had lost eight games in a row, including the first two to their cross-town rival New York Yankees. The Mets season seemed to be on the verge of teetering out of control when then General Manager Steve Phillips made a bold move to try and jump start the season. 

He fired three coaches, pitching coach Bob Apodaca, bullpen coach Randy Niemann and hitting coach Tom Robson. The move was controversial and greatly upset manager Bobby Valentine. Phillips’ reason for firing Robson was given because the team struggled with runners in scoring position. 

Whether or not those coaches were the reason for the Mets struggles, the team surged.  They won 35 of their next 50 games. It jumpstarted the Mets season just like Phillips had hoped, with the Mets ultimately making the playoffs and advancing to the NLCS before losing to the Braves in 6 games. 

As far as 2025 is concerned, I think it’s time to make a change. The Mets need a wake-up call. Maybe it’ll jumpstart the Mets offense like it did in 1999.